Downloading - what will it mean for for the average musician in a dozen years?

One thing downloading will do is (like blogging), level the playing field. The giant record companies will struggle to come up with a new plan to distribute their mass distribution junk, but it is going to be increasingly hard to sell recordings on a huge scale. At the same time, I can see a day when more good musicians have an opportunity for some level of distribution through the internet, since the elusive 'record contract' will be less and less of an issue.